Betting markets generally tend to be unenthusiastic about vice-presidential politics. However, 2020 has proven to be anything but typical so far. While it’s likely the dearth of gambling options currently available may be playing some role, the Democratic Party veepstakes is generating widespread interest from gamblers, which can be seen by some quickly shifting betting lines.

Indeed, this is an election unprecedented in American history. Aside from the unpredictable dynamics of President Donald Trump and the barrage of controversies surrounding his persona, both campaigns were on complete lockdown for more than three months due to the COVID pandemic scare.

It now appears the political season is about to ramp up again and shift into high gear. Some gamblers are even tuning in to political talk shows and digesting breaking news just as closely as injury reports in sporting events. Nevermind watching the Super Bowl or Game 7 of the World Series — many of us have betting action on the pending veep pick.

Kamala Harris Still the Favorite

While wagering on political races isn’t legal in Nevada (yet), that hasn’t stopped betting action from gravitating offshore.

Accordingly, several online betting sites have posted odds on the vice-presidential sweepstakes, which has effectively determined a solid crop of frontrunners and several long shots.

With the Democratic National Convention still two months away, Sen. Kamala Harris has emerged as the clear frontrunner. She broke away from the pack in late April after reports began leaking that Biden is determined to select a woman of color as his running mate.

Harris had been bunched in the pack of a crowded and competitive list of veep candidates. Listed at +200 as of mid-April, she was an attractive candidate for a national campaign, but also risked being lost in the shuffle of a tough deck of fellow prospects. Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Stacey Abrams, who were also thought to be under strong consideration by Biden, had their own backers. Klobuchar has dropped out of the running, and the odds Abrams have plunged over the past month, leaving Harris now as the veep prospect to beat.

This needle has also moved significantly in favor of two other intriguing possibilities — Rep. Val Demings and Amb. Susan Rice. A month ago, Demings was listed by most sites at around +2500. Rice was even more of a long shot, garnering a price at +2000 as recently as mid-May. Three months earlier, Rice wasn’t even listed among the candidates by many sites. Both Demings and Rice have made the biggest surges according to current odds.

Both odds and experts indicate it’s become a three-person race.

Women in Charge

On March 16, Biden promised to pick a woman as his running mate. Whether this decision was purely political or practical, odds reflect the virtually unanimous agreement that Biden will deliver on this pledge and a female will be on the ticket.

It’s vital to understand the reasons why Biden and the Democrats want a female VP candidate. Perhaps a closer examination of motives might enable gamblers to weigh the prospective chances of each potential nominee, and determine if value-betting opportunities exist.

Data shows Trump suffers from an alarming gender gap. All reliable polls reveal a majority of women — 62% by at least one most recent account — won’t vote for Trump. The data shows Trump losing by a whopping 30 percentage points among female voters.

Conversely, Trump is winning the male vote by about 7 percentage points. Obviously, these numbers are fluid, but Democrats believe the gender gap to be Trump’s Achilles heel in the election.

Trump’s path to victory in November will be difficult if current polls that show Biden up by double digits are accurate. However, the race is much closer in so-called “swing states.”

Hence, there are compelling reasons why Democrats are determined to add a female to the ticket, which is thought to be one way to boost enthusiasm and turnout for Biden.

Black is the New Gold

When former presidential candidate Sen. Amy Klobuchar dropped out of the veepstakes last week, she stated that a woman of color would be the ideal decision for her party.

From an odds perspective, that marked a clear division between the practical contenders and the long shots.

No doubt, the admittedly sensitive topic of race is a huge issue in America right now. This is especially true in Democratic Party politics where Black women, arguably, have been the bricks and mortar that kept the party together and laser-focused on rebuilding after the crushing defeats of 2016.

Given that lower Black turnout in 2016 (versus 2008 and 2012) was a contributing factor in the previous election, Democrats are determined to generate greater enthusiasm among that critical constituency, and picking a Black veep would likely go a long way toward rekindling turnout numbers from the Barack Obama days.

So, it’s clear why the top three favorites are all well-qualified Black women.

Democratic Veep Odds

According to a consensus of numbers from online sportsbooks, here are the current odds of each candidate being chosen as the 2020 Democratic vice-presidential nominee. Note that these numbers are quite fluid at the moment (odds are accurate as of June 24th). A $100 wager would return the following odds:

• Kamala Harris -125
• Susan Rice +210
• Val Demings +550
• Elizabeth Warren +1200
• Keisha Lance Bottoms +1400
• Stacey Abrams +2000
• Michelle Lujan Grisham +2500
• Michelle Obama +2500
• Tammy Duckworth +3300
• Gretchen Whitmer +5000
• Hillary Clinton +5000
• Tulsi Gabbard +10000

Let’s highlight the top prospective nominees:

Kamala Harris — The former California Attorney General and current US Senator from the nation’s most populous state was also an early presidential candidate. However, she ran a poor campaign and failed to garner much support. Nonetheless, Harris looks to be the total package as a running mate with lots of legal and political experience, a criminal justice background, appealing qualities as a candidate, and a reputation for standing up and fighting when the spotlight shines brightest. Harris deserves to be the favorite, but might be slightly overpriced given the strengths of other candidates in the race. She also doesn’t help much on the electoral map since her home state is assumed to be a lock for Biden. Yet another factor could be Harris’ ambition for a different office — Attorney General, assuming there’s a Biden Administration.

Susan Rice — The former UN Ambassador and National Security Advisor under President Obama has risen steadily as a betting choice during the last month. Rice certainly has stellar credentials in foreign policy, but she lacks these strengths in domestic affairs, nor has she ever run for public office. Critics might also raise concerns about her alleged misconduct in some Obama administration matters (whether these charges have merit or not is immaterial since scandal always makes for a ripe target during a campaign). Aside from Rice’s obvious mastery of history and governance, and her unflappable nature, her strongest asset of all as a betting choice is probably her close prior relationship working with Joe Biden when he served as Vice President. This personal relationship could be the tipping point that gets her the nomination. Rice was super attractive at +650 odds a few weeks ago, and still looks to be worth a bet at some stray offshore sites where +210 is still available. Rice has lots of momentum at the moment, coming off a stellar appearance on last week’s edition of “60 Minutes.”

Val Demings — Rep. Demings rocketed into the top three a few weeks ago as more viewers saw her on television, reacting superbly to race issues and discussing controversies about police policy (note that Demings was the former Chief of Police in Orlando). She also rose to national prominence during the Trump impeachment hearings in congress, and many Trump-bashers loved what they saw. Demings also brings one huge advantage to the ticket. She’s from Florida. Unlike Harris and Rice, who don’t give much boost to Biden’s electoral chances, if Demings could somehow turn Florida blue (for Democrats), the roadmap to re-election would be very difficult for Trump-Pence. Hence, Demings deserves very strong consideration as a betting choice.

The Field — My random thoughts about other possible contenders:

• Stacey Abrams was a hot pick once Biden was assured of winning the nomination but has since faded and seems an unlikely choice given the strengths of the three frontrunners
• Elizabeth Warren would be a strong veep selection in any other year, but not in this political climate, although she’s favored by many in the progressive wing of the Democratic Party which is essential to victory
• Keisha Lance Bottoms burst upon the national scene recently as the Mayor of Atlanta, but seems an office and election win away from being catapulted to the national stage
• Michelle Obama’s name is floated as a possibility in these races and will continue to be a target of future speculation as to any possible political future; however, she’s not shown any desire to re-enter the spotlight and doesn’t seem to be a serious contender (wild card possibility: she knows Biden well, and the announcement is being crafted as a bombshell surprise — no, I don’t believe this, but who knows?)

Nolan Dalla is putting his degree in political science to work. He can be reached at: nolandalla@gmail.com.

The post Vice Dice: Handicapping the Shifting 2020 Democratic Veepstakes appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

I don’t know when it will come, but at some point during this “social distancing” thing, many of us are going to go stir crazy.

This is especially true if you live in Las Vegas, like me.

We’re used to going out and having fun. We’ve grown accustomed to casinos, restaurants, and world-class entertainment within a short drive. We’re spoiled by instant gratification.

Let me be very clear: I fully support and encourage following every recommendation and guideline put out by any authority. The draconian measures of social distancing, and, in some cases, “self-quarantining” are sure to save many lives. I beg everyone: Please follow them.

But let’s also be realistic. Many of us are going to go outdoors. We will leave our homes and drive places. Some destinations — such as grocery stores and medical facilities — are mandatory. Others, such as amusements are optional.

Fortunately, Las Vegas is blessed to have some really cool places closeby. Everything about these spots is positive. I think many readers might enjoy them if they can get outside and are willing to have an adventure.

In recent years, I’ve discovered a few amazing places that I want to share. Each destination is easy to reach from Las Vegas. So, if you’re a local resident or are just visiting, these are very doable. Best of all, they’re safe and cost next to nothing!

Option 1: Hike at Red Rock Canyon

Distance from Las Vegas: 5 miles

Time Required: A few hours (or more is optional)

Don’t be put off by the word “hike.” I promise — it’s not that difficult. There are many leisurely walks through the Red Rock Canyon National Conservation Area. Some take no more than an hour. Others are more challenging and can take up to a full day. The option is yours.

The main thing is — the views out here are magnificent. More like breathtaking. And, since it’s March, the weather should be great this time of year. The same goes for April and May. So, even if this health crisis continues for months, Red Rock Canyon will be there waiting to welcome us.

The many times I’ve been to Red Rock Canyon, it’s seldom crowded like a city attraction. Sure, several hundred people might be at the canyon at one time. But they are spread out across many miles. So, there’s virtually no threat going out and doing something that’s fun and good for you — walking and hiking.

Here’s my report of an amazing hike I did a few years ago with a friend, Nick Christenson. Nick knows these trails very well, so I was glad to have him as my guide. If you’re interested in learning more, please read this column, and if you really want to find out where to go, share the discussion on Facebook. Either Nick or I will be glad to address it. Read: Taking a Hike: The Other Side of Las Vegas.

Option 2: Visit the Valley of Fire State Park

Distance from Las Vegas: 50 miles

Time Required: 4 to 5 hours (can be done in a half-day)

Valley of Fire is about an hour’s drive to the northeast, about halfway to the Utah border. It’s a pristine setting with lots of rock formations and natural beauty.

There’s no urban development out here, meaning no hotels or gas stations. The natural splendor is what makes Valley of Fire so attractive. The park is located next to an Indian reservation, which has a tobacco shop at the main cut off from the highway onto a single-lane road, which takes another 10 miles, or so.

I’ve visited this park many times, usually with family or out-of-town guests. Everyone I’ve gone with enjoys the quiet solitude combined with the beauty of the unusual landscape.

Unfortunately, I have not written about the Valley of Fire in the past. So, instead, I will provide this link to their official website.

Option 3: Take a Drive to Death Valley (Dante’s View)

Distance from Las Vegas: 120 miles

Time Required: 8-10 hours (full-day)

People hear “Death Valley” and they think of unbearable heat and barren desert. But it’s not that way at all. Or, I should say, it’s much more than that.

One of the park’s best-kept secrets is an amazing landmark that overlooks the vast natural treasure, which is about a two-hour drive from Las Vegas. This is one of the best day-trips you will ever take from this city. For reasons inexplicable, I’ve met very few Las Vegas residents (or anyone else) who has done this wonderful mini-vacation. Don’t be like them! Do it!

Remember, during this period, we want to be cognizant of “social distancing.” Well, a visit to Death Valley is about as socially distanced as it gets. The closest you will come to other people here might be cars on the other side of the highway.

This article I wrote about Dante’s View will give you some idea of what awaits those to make the drive. Trust me, it’s worth it. And, once you’re there, it’s a nice spot to get out and spend a few hours. The view never gets old.

Warning: There is no food or services out here, so please make sure you’re well-fed and stocked up before heading out. Oh, and the area is totally safe. You just need to make certain you have plenty of gas and don’t leave hungry, because you won’t find a fast-food place around for 50 miles. And that’s what makes it so wonderful.

Try Dante’s View. This is an amazing experience. Read more: Dante’s View: A Great Vegas Getaway

Stay Safe, Volunteer, Embrace Opportunity

There are more places to visit than just these. Utah has some astonishing parks within a reasonable distance. Of course, it’s also okay just to go outside and take a walk.

I understand these are unusual times. For everyone. We’ve never been in a spot like this before. I encourage those I know and those I haven’t had the opportunity to meet yet to stay safe. But also — please volunteer and help when and where they can.

Just as important … I also think it’s vital to live a little and enjoy life.

Visiting one of the parks within driving distance is a breath of fresh air and a very responsible way to take advantage of this disruption of our normal lives.

The best way to appreciate Las Vegas right now might be to leave it, if for only a few hours or a day.

The post Take a Hike: Surviving Las Vegas During the Coronavirus Crisis appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

On most afternoons, 4 pm inside a Las Vegas sportsbooks is typically primetime. East Coast games are just about to tip-off or drop the puck at center ice. Gamblers line up at the betting windows eager to make their last-minute wagers.

But today was different.

At 4 pm on Thursday, March 12, the action inside virtually all race and sportsbooks slowed to a crawl. Just about everywhere around town — from the center Strip to the locals’ casinos all the way out to Boulder Highway — seats were empty. Only a few tellers were open, mostly sitting around with little to do.

Suddenly, the coronavirus scare has become very real. Even more worrisome, experts warn us the crisis will get worse.

Economic and social uncertainty threatens to obliterate what has been a thriving sports gambling sector. Now, with few sporting events to bet on, we’re about to enter uncharted territory. It’s happening with almost no warning and at a time when legalized sports betting has finally gained widespread popular acceptance, and is more popular than ever.

Dark Thursday Report

With so few games to bet on, there’s not much reason to hang out in a sportsbook. That seems to be the consensus opinion just about everywhere in Las Vegas.

I monitored several sportsbooks on the Strip over the last 36 hours, which has been the critical period during which most pro and college sports leagues announced a full-scale shutdown. The scene was identical everywhere. A smattering of tourists strolled through, staying no more than a minute or two, probably curious more than anything else.

Regulars appeared dazed and confused, uncertain of what to do exactly when suddenly confronted with hours of free time normally consumed by watching and betting on sports. It also appears staffing has already been cut back, at least in the public eye.

Seating galleries were nearly empty. The giant electronic odds boards were dark in several places.

On this dark Thursday (it was cloudy and rainy in Las Vegas), I visited three more sportsbooks in person — the Orleans, Arizona Charlie’s, and Red Rock. The scene was much the same as on the Strip. During my informal scouting trip, a few gamblers sat around, scattered in seats and hanging out. It was difficult to tell why they were there.

European soccer matches were playing on giant television screens in eerily empty stadiums without spectators. These games were one of the few sporting events still open to wagering. But it didn’t appear that anyone was actually betting on soccer games or even watching them. By my estimation, unless World Cup matches are on, the soccer betting market in Las Vegas is minuscule. Perhaps that will change in the weeks ahead, with little else to watch or bet on.

Many TVs had sports talk shows playing — with coronavirus dominating the discussion. Few seemed to be watching or listening intently, but they all seemed to know something strange was going on.

Horseplayers Still Ponying Up

At least one section in the sportsbooks I visited looked close to normal. Horse racing bettors are a different breed. That became abundantly clear from my survey today. Much to my surprise, multiple race and sportsbooks were populated by gamblers who apparently hadn’t yet heard of coronavirus and think pandemic must be that new computer music their grandkids are into.

The horse racing crowd certainly skewed much older than the rest of the casino and sportsbook patrons. At all three casinos on Thursday, the horses ran and the bettors yelled and cheered. Mini-television screens beamed live racing just like it was any other day. Most gamblers had Daily Racing Forms spread out of desks. The only two open tellers worked the racing side of the room.

“The reason the horse bettors are still with us was because of the big carryover on the Pick Six,” explained Art Manteris, the highly-respected longtime Race and Sports Director at the Red Rock Casino Resort in Summerlin. “We don’t know what will happen in the days ahead, but they’re still coming in and making bets.”

The same scene was repeated at the Orleans and Arizona Charlies. Horseplayers, largely comprised of retired men who looked like they hung out together and knew each other, weren’t going to let a pandemic keep them from betting daily doubles and trifectas.

They’re gamblers, after all.

What’s Ahead, How Bad Will Things Get, How Long Will It Last?

By all accounts, the suspension of sporting events is likely to last longer than we expect. Given the growing number of cases nationwide and increasing public fear, it makes sense that big sporting event crowd magnets would be cautious, even overly so.

Now that some professional athletes have also tested positive for the virus, which can have an incubation period of two weeks or more, keeping arenas dark until the threat passes seems to make sense. But what didn’t seem imaginable just two days ago was the rapid-fire shuttering of sporting events, making news that reverberated worldwide.

“The NHL suspended games earlier today and then we heard March Madness is postponed. That’s huge for Las Vegas,” Manteris said. “We just have to take it day-to-day. We don’t want to overreact. It’s just something where we have to take a wait-and-see approach.”

Manteris declined to speculate on when and if race and sportsbooks would be forced to reduce hours or lay off employees, but it really does seem inevitable.

“I can’t say what will happen. Let’s just hope for the best but also prepare for the worst,” he said. “We’ve never seen anything on this scale before … at least, for now, we still have horseplayers. There’s probably more people in here than at the track.”

The post Are Vegas Sportsbooks Becoming Coronavirus Ghost Towns? appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

The 2020 Major League Baseball season begins March 26. OG News is sizing up all 30 teams and their prospects for the year, with a breakdown of rosters and projections about how they’ll fare — important information for the betting public. 

The Phillies have the sixth-highest projected win total of any team on the National League, and 11th-highest in the majors. Here’s OG’s bold forecast for the Phils, along with our prediction as to how they’ll fare in 2020.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting at a Glance

• Regular Season Projected Win Total: O/U 86.5
• Odds to Win the National League East: +330 (3.3 to 1)
• Odds to Win the National League Pennant: +900 (9 to 1)
• Odds to Win the 2020 World Series: +2200 (22 to 1)
• 2019 Regular Season Projected Win Total: 83
• 2019 Final Record/Standings/Results: 81-81 (4th place), finished 16 games out of first place

Key Additions

+ Didi Gregorius (SS) — career .267 hitter with some power and speed, will certainly contribute
+ Josh Harrison (2B) — released last season by Tigers due to injury, shows promise when healthy
+ Zack Wheeler (P) — 11-8 record and under 4.00 ERA with Mets last season, fierce fastball thrower

Key Subtractions

– Corey Dickerson (OF)
– Maikel Franco (3B)
– Caesar Hernandez (2B)
– Logan Morrison (1B)
– Pat Neshek (P)

Reasons for Optimism

After a dismal stretch of bad teams, disappointing seasons, and questionable front-office moves, last year’s revamped Phillies reached the .500 mark for the first time since 2012. But they missed the playoffs for the eighth consecutive season, despite committing nearly $400 million in future payroll. This year’s team won’t have any excuses. Philadelphia has the parts in place to be a contender, especially given their formidable batting lineup.

Pitching

The top two starters in the rotation will be just fine. Aaron Nola (53-35 career W-L record with 3.48 ERA) should return to good form in ’20. Free-agent acquisition Zack Wheeler, with his blazing fastball and a fresh start on a contending team, should also post better numbers this time around. The Phillies can be quite confident in these starters.

The remaining lineup of hurlers has either underperformed or remains untested. That’s typically a huge negative. No doubt, this looks to be the Phillies’ soft spot. But let’s also acknowledge the bullpen was hammered with injuries last season and never was able to stay rested and productive.

Even a healthy and somewhat stable roster for the Phils that posts just average pitching numbers might be good enough to satisfy the overall needs of the team, especially given their strengths in batting. In other words, Philadelphia might have an average pitching rotation but could be a winner by outscoring most of its opponents with a dangerous hitting lineup.

It’s also noteworthy that GM Matt Klentak has been aggressive in going after free agents and making trades during the last two offseasons. If they’re contending on the East, look for more moves and a pitching acquisition that might be the difference between another .500 season and making the postseason.

Hitting

The Phillies will field one of baseball’s most potent offenses. As many as six starters are expected to crush 20-plus homers, with two stars being genuine threats to win the homer title.

Philadelphia’s most dangerous bat belongs to superstar Bryce Harper, fresh off a superb .372 OBP, 35-homer, 114-RBI debut season with Phillies in ’19. Harper has been a consistent performer and is now in the prime of his career, entering his ninth season in the majors. He should achieve his usual numbers, and now will be assisted by an outstanding supporting cast of hitters.

Rhys Hoskins needs to improve his on-base average, but his power is undisputed. Last year’s 29 HRs and 85 RBIs will compliment Harper’s contribution to a batting order with few easy outs.

Didi Gregorius, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura are all above-average hitters. But J.T. Realmuto (.282 batting average with 22 HRs and 85 RBIs) will be key to the Phillies prospects. He’s also among the best defensive catchers in the league.

It’s hard to find flaws in the hitting lineup, which looks formidable. The lineup has largely been injury-free and has produced solid numbers.

Intangibles

The big question mark is pitching — and whether or not the Phillies front office will dig deeper into their pockets and exceed the luxury tax for the first time to address this weakness. That might be what determines this team’s ultimate fate.

New manager Joe Girardi is a proven tactician in the dugout, accustomed to the pressures of running big-payroll teams with his tenure as skipper of the Yankees. That experience will suit Philadelphia well in 2020 and be a long-term positive for this up-and-coming franchise.

Reasons for Pessimism

The Phillies’ weakness is clearly their pitching. There are some serious holes in this rotation.

The middle of the rotation looks weak. Zach Eflin and Jake Arrieta have not shown any sense of consistency. At least one of these #3 of #4 starters will have to step up in a big way to take this team to the playoffs. The fifth spot appears to be wide open, another area of concern.

Philadelphia’s bullpen also appears vulnerable, arguably the fourth-best in the division. Hector Neris listed as the team’s closer, with his unimpressive numbers, is all you need to know. Statistically, this bullpen issued way too walks and blew many close games. It’s hard to find the middle reliever or fireman on this unit who will become a reliable go-to arm in the clutch.

Management supposedly addressed th glaring bullpen void by inviting a crop of average-to-below-average temps to spring training and then crossing their fingers that a couple of these low-paid, low-risk prospects produce decent numbers.

A combination of uncertainty with the 3-4-5 starters in the rotation along with a vulnerable bullpen is a recipe for another mediocre season. The Phillies better score lots of runs, or they won’t win.

Philadelphia Phillies Betting Advice

As we’ve discussed with other teams in this division, the problem is competing amidst a logjam of above-average teams. The NL East boasts four clubs projected to win at least 86 games, which isn’t feasible. Two clubs will surpass expectations, and two others will likely fade and disappoint their fans and backers.

Philadelphia appears to be one of those teams that will need a few breaks to surpass its more talented rivals. It’s worth noting that the Braves, Mets, and Nationals all lost some personnel, and could fade as the Phillies develop a grove heading into the summer. But way too many things must go right for the Phils and wrong for their rivals to have any confidence in betting this team over the total and/or to make the postseason.

A more ideal wager on the Phillies, in general, might be to consider betting many of their games to exceed the total. This is especially true for early season contests before the O/U totals adjust. This lineup will score plenty of runs and the pitching, aside from the first two spots in the rotation, could be in for a long season. Over betters should keep a close eye on the Philadelphia game totals and seek out the good value spots.

Previous Reports/Coming Soon:

• Atlanta Braves
• Miami Marlins
• New York Mets
• Washington Nationals

The post Baseball Betting Forecast: Philadelphia Phillies (Over/Under 86.5 Wins) appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

The Mets are expected to be an above-average team competing in a division with four possible playoff contenders. Their win total for the upcoming season is projected at 86.5, ranking as the third-highest total in the NL East, along with rival Philadelphia, which is also forecasted by oddsmakers to post the exact same number of victories.

New York has the sixth-highest projected win total of any team on the National League, and 11th-highest number in the majors. Here’s OG’s bold forecast for the Mets, along with our prediction as to how they’ll fare in 2020.

The Mets boast one of the best starting pitching duos in the majors, but their Achilles’ heel could be the pending sale of the franchise, which likely will temporarily tighten the purse strings needed to improve with trades.

New York Mets Betting at a Glance

• Regular Season Projected Win Total: O/U 86.5
• Odds to Win the National League East: +330 (3.3 to 1)
• Odds to Win the National League Pennant: +800 (8 to 1)
• Odds to Win the 2020 World Series: +2000 (20 to 1)
• 2019 Regular Season Projected Win Total: 84.5
• 2019 Final Record/Standings/Results: 86-76 (3rd place), missed wild-card spot by three games

Key Additions

Several new acquisitions could contribute significantly to the Mets prospects for a big year. Here’s a closer look at what happened during the recent offseason:

+ Dellin Betances (P) — Four-time All-Star enjoyed sporadic brilliance with the Yankees, but injuries are a concern
+ Stephen Gonsalves (P) — Journeyman in minors; a low-risk prospect
+ Rick Porcello (P) — Mets hoping he can replicate his remarkable 22-win season with Boston in 2016
+ Michael Wacha (P) — Seven-year career with St. Louis was impressive; a possible 5th starter
+ Jake Marisnick (OF) — Acquired in a trade with Astros

Key Subtractions

No doubt, the Mets also lost some talent that they will have to replace:

– Zack Wheeler (P)
– Rajai Davis (OF)
– Matt Kemp (OF)
– Juan Lagares (OF)
– Joe Panik (2B)
– Todd Frazier (3B)

Reasons for Optimism

The Mets could be one of baseball’s top pitching teams, provided they remain healthy and see some improvement in the bullpen. Most teams would love to be stacked with this rotation’s potential.

Pitching

The 2020 version of the Mets are built around great starting pitching — namely two-time, back-to-back Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom (led the majors with a 1.70 ERA in 2018 and 255 strikeouts in 2019) and Noah Syndergaard 47-30 career W-L record with 3.31 ERA). If Rick Porcello, who came to New York from the Red Sox, adds more than a dozen victories, this will be a devastating lineup of hurlers for opposing hitters.

New York’s starters may be proven, but their bullpen has struggled in recent seasons. Mets GM Brodie Van Wagenen went the free-agent route to address the matter, signing longtime New York Yankee reliever Dellin Betances. While a career 2.38 ERA and 1.043 WHIP are impressive, Betances sat out almost all of 2019 due to shoulder and lat injuries (and a torn achilles in his September season debut), so he’s still a major question mark.

Seth Lugo looks to be the most likely reliever to step up and carry the load in late innings this season. He was a beast in his limited 80 innings pitched last year (7-4 record with 2.70 ERA, six saves, and 0.900 WHIP).

If the Mets get solid seasons from their two aces — deGrom and Syndergaard — and Porcello (149-118 career record with 4.36 ERA) or Wacha (59-39 career record with .391 ERA) contribute to the starting rotation, then this team can compete for the division title. If the much-maligned bullpen develops a competent firewall — boosted by Betances and Lugo — the Mets are likely to win the division title.

Hitting

The Mets look to be an above-average hitting team with one bona fide superstar-in-the-making, and multiple contributors scattered throughout the lineup.

Pete Alonso (1B) set a new rookie MLB record by smashing 53 HRs last season to go along with 120 RBIs (.260 batting average). Alonso is the real deal and will make the Mets dangerous with his bat.

Beyond superstar Alonso in the lineup, Jeff McNeil brings a steady bat. He batted .318 last season, which ranked 4th in the league.

Wilson Ramos (C), Amed Rosario (SS), and J.D. Davis (OF) each produced solid numbers last season, ranking 3-5-5 in most team offensive categories. After missing much of the ’19 season due to injuries, if Brandon Nimmo (OF) with his team-leading .400 on-base-percentage remains healthy, that will add significantly to the Mets’ run production.

Intangibles

Boosted by big-market finances and the constant pressure to win by their fans, the Mets do enjoy some advantages over more spendthrift clubs and weaker fan bases. However, the pending sale of this team could be a concern this year, and a possible distraction for both players and management.

Former player Carlos Beltran was hired as the new manager last November, then had to resign in January when he got caught up in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal. That leaves some confusion in the dugout as to who takes control, and how players will respond.

With the new replacement manager stepping into the void, the New York media spotlight will only amplify every decision and dispute in the dugout.

It appears the Mets’ intangibles are entirely in management and ownership. This could break either way, for or against their prospects of success.

Reasons for Pessimism

Major areas of concern for the Mets are the shaky bullpen, mediocre offensive numbers beyond Alonso’s big bat, and nagging injuries, which have so often derailed this well-stocked franchise in the past.

It seems too much to ask for multiple older players who haven’t produced well in recent years to add significantly to the already established talent on this squad. Add in the uncertainties that come with having a new skipper in the dugout … and this simply triggers too many question marks.

New York Mets Betting Advice

The Mets boast one of the best starting pitching duos in the majors, but the pending sale of the franchise could prove to be their Achilles’ heel if this tightens team purse strings when looking to improve with key trades. The Mets could be an attractive early season wager. However, as injuries inevitably mount, ownership might be reluctant to fill in the gaps with trades and take on added payroll, meaning this team could end up as a fade by season’s end.

Overall, the Mets look to be well above average in talent. If they didn’t compete in such a tough division, their win total would likely be closer to 90, and they’d be a favorite to finish first or compete for a wild card. Unfortunately, that’s not the case in the loaded NL East where this club could finish anywhere from first to fourth. They appear most likely to end up in third or fourth place. Their lineup simply has too much uncertainty compared to the proven winners among rival clubs in this division.

Previous Reports/Coming Soon:

• Atlanta Braves
• Miami Marlins
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Washington Nationals

The post Baseball Betting Forecast: New York Mets (Over/Under 86.5 Wins) appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

The Marlins are expected to be one of Major League Baseball’s worst teams. Their projected win total for the upcoming season is 63.5. This ranks as the lowest projected win total in the entire National League. Miami also has the third-lowest projected win total of any team in the majors. Only Baltimore and Detroit, both in the American League, rank lower. Here’s OG’s bold forecast for the Marlins, along with our prediction as to how they’ll fare in 2020.

Since the Marlins’ magical 2003 World Series championship … Florida/Miami has missed the postseason for 16 consecutive seasons. This dubious streak should extend to 17 seasons, after 2020.

Miami Marlins at a Glance

• Regular Season Projected Win Total: O/U 63.5
• Odds to Win National League East: +5000 (50/1)
• Odds to Win National League Pennant: +12500 (125/1)
• Odds to Win 2020 World Series: +25000 (250/1)
• 2019 Regular Season Projected Win Total: 65.5
• 2019 Final Record/Standings/Results: 57-105 (5th place), finished last, 40 games back

Key Additions

There are a couple of acquired names who could produce breakout seasons. Here’s a closer look at what happened in the offseason:

+ Jesus Aguilar (1B) — Coming off a subpar ’19 season, but a career average hitter and producer, which is an improvement for this roster.

+ Jonathan Villar (2B) — Signed from a horrible Orioles squad and joins another bad team; decent production in ’19 with .274 BA, 24 HRs, and 73 RBIs; he should contribute

+ Francisco Cervelli (C) — Dismal career numbers, hard to see how he might factor

+ Corey Dickerson (OF) — Solid free-agent acquisition with what could turn out to be a team-high batting average (around .300 in each of the last two seasons) with modest power, as an added bonus

+ Matt Kemp (OF) — Impressive lifetime numbers since 2006, but now age 36 and coming off injury-plagued season; likely on the downslope of his career

+ Yimi Garcia (P) — Mostly a minor-league prospect who hasn’t found a comfortable roster spot in the majors through six forgetful seasons

Key Subtractions

Is it possible to “subtract” from a team that lost 105 games last season? Perhaps not, but here are the team’s notable losses:

– Neil Walker (1B)

– Martin Prado (2B)

– Starlin Castro (2B)

– Curtis Granderson (OF)

– Wei-Yin Chin (P)

Reasons for Optimism

Well … umm … there’s … okay — nothing. Nada.

It’s hard to find much to be optimistic about with a club that remains at the foundation of a lengthy and, perhaps, never-ending rebuilding stage. Nonetheless, let’s examine this scrappy roster in closer detail.

Pitching

The miserable Marlins burned through 26 pitchers last season, the most of any roster in the majors. Things got so bad in September, they appeared close to signing starters off Craigs List. The upcoming 2020 season should be just as erratic, though there are a few spots in the rotation worth watching.

Miami’s best prospect for a winning record among starters appears to be Sandy Alcantara (6-14 with a 3.88 ERA last season). Alcantara throws hard and fast, but will need to develop more consistency and get some run support if he expects to become the ace on this putrid staff. He can be a workhorse, which will be needed on this staff filled with serious holes.

The remaining four starters in the rotation include a grab bag of one-dimensional pitchers who have floundered around the majors for years, including starters with injury concerns, in addition to untested talent. Caleb Smith has never posted an ERA anywhere under 4.00. Jose Urena and Jordan Yamamoto are injury-prone. The fifth projected starter in the rotation, Pablo Lopez, was 5-8 with an ERA over 5.00 last season.

This rotation is pure junk.

Relievers are remarkably better and, arguably, one of the few strengths of this team, though they will see lots of innings and could throw a record number of pitches this season based on the glaring weaknesses of the starting five.

Hitting

Miami ranked 29th in hitting last season out of 30 teams, posting a miserable .241 team batting average which was ahead of only Detroit. The Marlins were also 29th in runs scored and dead last in homers. This means there’s only room for improvement.

Jorge Alfaro (C) is one of the few above-average talents in this starting lineup. In a weak N.L. flock of catchers, a solid three-month opener could make Alfaro the Marlins’ lone All-Star. His .262 batting average with 18 HRs and 57 RBIs from ’19 will need to improve, but Alfaro locks up a rare solid roster spot.

Garrett Cooper (2B) looks to be the only other bright spot on a starting lineup packed with below-average hitters and journeymen plagued with injuries. Cooper’s bat (.281 average with 15 HRs and 51 RBIs) would be considered average on most other clubs. But among the Marlins, he’s one of the team leaders in most offensive categories. That’s how pathetically weak this punchless lineup is coming into 2020.

Intangibles

Don Mattingly is now in his fifth season as the team manager. Each season has been worse than the last. Mattingly’s Marlins have posted 79, 77, 63, and 57 wins respectively since 2016, which leaves him little room for hitting the floor in 2020. One expects this will be the ex-superstar player’s last shot at turning around this dreadful franchise.

Derek Jeter has only a small claim in the ownership stake of the team (reportedly 4%) and was expected to get more involved in player personnel decisions. However, it appears that the ex-Yankee great sees the futility of sticking out his neck and being blamed for the persistent dysfunction in Miami.

The team will have serious problems filling seats in the upcoming season. With only 818,000 paid fans last season, the Marlins ranked dead last in average attendance per game.

Reasons for Pessimism

The Marlins are coming off their second-worst record in franchise history.

The Marlins need to use the 2020 campaign to craft some young up-and-coming talent, build a little enthusiasm, and create a culture where exciting players and free agents will want to come and play. Certainly, Miami could be (and should be) an attractive magnet for so many Latino superstars originally from the nearby Caribbean. Unfortunately, there are few signs the Marlins are doing any of these things to cultivate and keep players.

What really hurts Miami’s prospects is playing in a brutal division where all four of their rivals could finish around .500 or higher. Both Atlanta and Washington should be 90-plus win teams. New York and Philadelphia are projected somewhere in the mid-80s in regular-season wins. So, where will the grossly overmatched Marlins get their victories? That’s 76 divisional games (19 division games times four teams) where the Marlins are prohibitive underdogs in talent.

There are 20 interleague games, which also put the Marlins at a disadvantage. The slate could be especially treacherous since it includes games versus the Astros and Angels. Since 2018, the Marlins have posted a 19-36 W-L record when playing outside their own time zone. The other A.L. squad on the Marlins’ schedule is the Tampa Rays, expected to be a contender in 2020. This all amounts to a murderous schedule — and many defeats.

Miami Marlins Betting Advice

This is a horrible team, with bad ownership, tainted by a culture of losing. Since the Marlins’ magical 2003 World Series victory over the heavily-favored New York Yankees, followed by the complete selloff and dismemberment of the entire roster, Florida/Miami has missed the postseason for 16 consecutive seasons. That dubious streak should extend to 17 seasons, after 2020.

Contrarians might be tempted to fade the public pessimism on this team and wager the Marlins over the total. But caution is advised. That temptation seems way too risky.

Admittedly, Miami probably won’t suffer as bad a season as they did in 2019. However, to eclipse this year’s projected O/U wins, they must scratch out an additional seven victories above and beyond the 2019 campaign with a roster that doesn’t appear to be much improved.

This might be a good opportunity to go with the flow and bet Miami under the total, especially if you can find a rogue number at 64.5, which is available at some outlier sportsbooks. A bad team with little improvement playing in a tough division looks to be a solid under wager, even with a low total.

Previous Reports/Coming Soon:

• Atlanta Braves
• New York Mets
• Philadelphia Phillies
• Washington Nationals

The post Baseball Betting Forecast: Miami Marlins (Over/Under 63.5 Wins) appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

The Braves are expected to be one of Major League Baseball’s best teams. Their season-win total for the upcoming season is 91.5. This ranks as the second-highest projected win total in the National League. Atlanta also has the fourth-highest projected win total of any team overall. Here’s OG’s bold forecast for the Braves, along with our prediction as to how they’ll fare in 2020.

Atlanta spent $150 million on team payroll, their biggest in history by more than $25 million over the previous high. The message is loud and clear — this team expects to win, right now.

Atlanta Braves

• Regular Season Projected Win Total: O/U 91.5
• Odds to Win the National League East: +200 (2-1)
• Odds to Win the National League Pennant: +1000 (10-1)
• Odds to Win the 2020 World Series: +1400 (14-1)
• 2019 Regular Season Projected Win Total: 84
• 2019 Final Record/Standings/Results: 97-65 (1st place) lost division series to St. Louis Cardinals

Key Additions

+ Cole Hamels (starting pitcher) — Signed as free-agent; entering 15th season; coming off an injury; mediocre stats last three years

+ Will Smith (relief pitcher) — Signed as free-agent; coming off 34-save season; sub-3.00 ERA in each of last three seasons

+ Marcell Ozuna (outfielder) — Signed as free-agent; above-average hitter, good power

+ Travis d’Arnaud (catcher) — Signed as free-agent; career .246 hitter with below-average power and run production

Key Subtractions

– Francisco Cervelli (C)

– Charlie Culbertson (OF)

– Josh Donaldson (3B)

– Bill Hamilton (OF)

– Adelny Hechavarria (2B)

– Matt Joyce (OF)

– Dallas Keuchel (P)

– Brian McCann (C)

– Anthony Swarzak (P)

– Julio Teheran (P)

– Josh Tomlin (P)

Reasons For Optimism

Pitching

Atlanta will be aiming for their third-straight division title and a third consecutive 90+ win season. This club has the talent in place to achieve all that, and more.

Ace starter Mike Soroka (13-4 with a 2.68 ERA) is only 21 and looks to be the brightest star in the Braves’ future. Their 2020 season could be determined by his right arm, which is a rocket that struck out 142 batters while yielding only 41 walks last year. Soroka also surrendered the second-fewest homers of any qualifying starting pitcher in baseball, an indication of all-around excellence. His 1.111 WHIP last season ranked just outside the top-10 in the N.L.

Beyond Soroko, the remaining four projected starters all have question marks. However, each has shown indications of consistency in the past — from 36-year-old Cole Hamel’s glory days with the Phillies and Rangers to Mike Foltynewicz now entering his sixth season with the Braves to Max Fried coming off a stellar 17-win season to Sean Newcomb coming off his best year (3.16 ERA), although he saw limited action. Newcomb, in particular, is the wildcard in this rotation. If he can avoid a disappointing early 2019 when he was sent down to the minors and re-establish himself as a starter, this staff should be fine.

The Atlanta bullpen should be fine with at least two solid arms, both proven closers. The addition of Will Smith (1.247 WHIP) from the Giants is a huge boost to a staff that already includes Mark Melancon (1.126 WHIP).

Hitting

The Braves ranked third in the N.L. last season when combined among several batting categories. The nucleus of a productive hitting lineup returns healthy, with six starters who made the 2019 All-Star team.

Leading the way will be first-baseman Freddie Freeman (295 with 38 HRs and 121 RBIs). He’s complemented by second-baseman Ozzie Albies (295 with 24 HRs and 86 RBIs). Outfielder Ronald Acuna (.280 with 41 HRs and 101 RBIs) rounds out one of the most productive hitting top-of-the-lineups in baseball. The remaining Braves’ lineup appears to be quite average.

The acquisition of outfielder Marcell Ozuna (.243 with 29 HRs and 89 RBIs) from the Cardinals should also be noted. The .243 batting average was the worst of Ozuna’s career, but considering his .272 career average, the Braves expect him to revert back to a decent production level. Nonetheless, that still some serious power added to the lineup.

Intangibles

The Braves are a solid organization led by manager Brian Snitker who took over the team in 2016 and has coached them back into contention after two terrible seasons in 2016 and 2017. Since then, Atlanta has surpassed all expectations. However, they are now projected as a favorite. It remains to be seen if they’ve peaked or can gain additional traction in the postseason and challenge for the National League pennant.

Reasons For Pessimism

Atlanta is top-heavy in talent, with four bona fide superstars in the lineup. However, beyond ace hurler Soroka (and possibly Fried) in the pitching rotation, the three other projected starters each have question marks. Hamels, listed as potentially the #3 starter in the rotation, looks like a huge gamble based on age and sub-par performance in recent years. Other pitchers bring uncertainty, as well.

The Braves do boast a power-trio of hitters which includes Freeman, Albies, and Acuna. However, looking deeper into the lineup doesn’t locate any standouts. Atlanta suffered some off-season losses due to free-agency (third-baseman Josh Donaldson being the costliest). Some average hitters and unproven talent will need to fill that void.

This organization does have a strong history of grooming young talent, and we should expect some additional breakout performances. That needs to occur if this team is to meet and surpass the high hopes of fans and baseball aficionados.

Our Prediction

Weighing Pros and Cons

The Braves are certainly talented in all phases of their roster — including pitching, relievers, hitters, and defense. They rightly deserve to be listed among baseball’s favorites to win a title this year. The team payroll, a record, is also some induction of ownership/management’s commitment to winning.

The trouble is, Atlanta plays in a very competitive division, which includes the defending world champions (Washington), and two up-and-coming clubs (NY Mets and Philadelphia), both of which are projected to have winning seasons.

Many things went right for the Braves in 2019, so much so that they obliterated their projected win total by 13 games and, unexpectedly, won the division after being expected to linger somewhere around the .500 mark. Assuming the stars can produce similar numbers again in 2020, and a couple of hitters and another pitcher or two can step up in class and contribute, this team can win what would be a third-straight division title and make deep a run in October.

Recommended Wager

Optimism aside, let’s be a bit more realistic. At 91.5, the Braves win total looks to be exactly where it should be. Hence, no wager is recommended on the team total. However, if this team does come anywhere close to their 2019 stats, then watch out.

Another year under the belt of this explosive lineup, combined with some proven experience, could make the Braves a very dangerous team that’s capable of winning it all.

Coming Soon:

• Miami Marlins
• Philadelphia Phillies
• New York Mets
• Washington Nationals

The post Baseball Betting Forecast: Atlanta Braves (Over/Under 91.5 Wins) appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

When New Jersey began offering legal sports betting in 2018, the casinos surely didn’t expect to be so sheepish about losing nearly $10 million in the two biggest-betting days of the entire year.

For gamblers, the NFL championship game has made it rain money. Collectively speaking, the betting public won big. However, for the house, the last two Super Bowls have been an absolute bloodbath.

Let’s examine what happened in 2019 and 2020 to see if we can figure out the reasons for the disparity. Surely it’s not that New Jersey bettors just know how to make better picks. Or is it?

2019: New Jersey Loses, Nevada Wins

Last year in the Patriots-Rams Super Bowl, New Jersey sportsbooks lost a combined $4.5 million according to official post-game reports released by the Division of Gaming Enforcement. The financial outcome was somewhat predictable given the New England Patriots were (and are) a team that’s wildly popular with the betting public.

This is especially true for most of the American northeast, which is packed with tens of millions of Patriots’ fans and bettors who want to wager on their favorite team. New England not just winning the game, but also covering the point spread and locking in all related money lines and teasers meant that sportsbooks were essentially drawing dead on the game.

Oddly enough, clear across the country, Nevada sportsbooks did quite well on last year’s Super Bowl game, winning $10.7 million according to the Nevada Gaming Control Board. The disparity between New Jersey losing a vast sum of money while Nevada won significantly is likely explained by two factors: (1) geography, and (2) volume.

Geography

Clearly, Las Vegas’s close proximity to Southern California, with millions of Rams’ fans, offset public enthusiasm for the Patriots. The Rams getting points attracted plenty of bets, which all lost. That meant the house won in Nevada.

Meanwhile, New Jersey also had something of a circumstantial outlier being a new legal sports gambling market. Many bettors were novices. Typically, inexperienced bettors work in favor of the house. However, since millions of dollars poured into the sportsbook from gamblers mostly betting with their hearts, the imbalance in wagers created a potential disaster. Hence, when the Patriots won and tens of thousands of New England bettors cheered and flooded to the cashout windows after the game, the sportsbooks ended up suffering a huge loss.

Volume

In 2019, Nevada’s Super Bowl wagers generated more than four times the total volume of their counterparts in New Jersey. Gamblers in Nevada put $145 million across the betting counter versus $35 million in New Jersey. That volume wasn’t only more geographically dispersed — since Las Vegas attracts bettors from all over the world, whereas New Jersey remains a more regional customer base — it also meant a far greater number of wagers were made on unconventional bets, such as totals and propositions.

Conversely, a sizable percentage of New Jersey’s bets were tied to a Patriots’ victory. With New Jersey’s books imbalanced, juxtaposed against such high volume in Nevada, the house was vulnerable in New Jersey while, in Nevada, the house almost couldn’t lose.

2020: New Jersey Loses Again, Nevada Wins Even More

With the public in love with the Chiefs, who closed as a -1.5 point favorite, Kansas City’s 31-20 victory over San Francisco meant another profitable day for bettors in New Jersey. The public reportedly beat sportsbooks for nearly $4.3 million … yet another gut punch to casinos.

Typically, the house win (or hold) on NFL football is somewhere between 5 and 10 percent. This year, the public reversed those expectations, winning about 7.8 percent of the total handle. Call this another bout of indigestion to what’s otherwise been a deliciously satisfying meal, as New Jersey battles for supremacy as the nation’s most profitable sports gambling market.

The Nevada Gaming Control Board released their unaudited Super Bowl numbers on Tuesday, and sure enough, 2020 was a banner year for the state’s sportsbooks, showing the second-best returns in the past 10 years.

Nevada’s 190 sportsbooks took in $154.7 million on the 2020 Super Bowl, resulting in an $18.8 million win for the operators — 12.1 percent for the house. MGM Resorts and Caesars Entertainment both reported multimillion-dollar wins from the game in the Las Vegas press. And while 2018 saw a bigger total handle at $158.6 million as the Eagles beat the Patriots, 41-33, the house edge there was a measly  0.7 percent.

Can Casinos Really Lose?

That was as close as the state’s gotten to losing money on the Super Bowl in more than a decade. The last time Nevada took a betting bath in the Big Game was in 2008 when the Giants upset the Patriots as 12-point underdogs, delivering casinos a $2.6 million loss. Before that, there was only one other time in the state’s history that sportsbooks lost on the biggest sports betting day of the year; in 1995, sportsbooks lost to the tune of $400,000 when the 49ers (-18.5) beat the Chargers, 49-26.

So while Nevada sportsbooks enjoyed yet another profitable Super Bowl, New Jersey is licking its wounds for the second time in its first two years of legal sports betting. With other states also reporting significant Super Bowl sportsbook wins — including Delaware, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island — New Jersey appears to be a minority of one amongst the sports betting newcomers.

Not to dwell on the misery of casinos, which won’t elicit any sympathy from gamblers, but there was still a mix of good news and bad news in New Jersey. Sure, the house lost money on this year’s Super Bowl. However, the overall betting volume increased by a whopping 70 percent. New Jersey took in $54.2 million as opposed to $34.8 million in last year’s big game. That’s a substantial increase.

New Jersey’s sports betting market isn’t just successful — it’s thriving.

Accordingly, we can conclude that New Jersey’s sportsbooks will end up doing just fine in the long run, even if the house so far has handled Super Bowls about as well as Kyle Shanahan with a 10-point, 4th-quarter lead.

The post How Nevada Won and New Jersey Lost in 2020 Super Bowl Betting appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

When the Chiefs took possession of the ball on their final drive of the 2020 Super Bowl, sitting atop a comfortable 11-point lead, most proposition wagers had already been decided a long time ago. Among these wagers was the prop on Mahomes and his projected total rushing yards.

Mahomes had accumulated 44 rushing yards with less than a minute remaining in the game. The prop bet on the “over” easily eclipsed all the totals, which were commonly available at various sportsbooks. The “over” ticket appeared to be a mortal lock.

Wait. Not so fast.

Why Mahomes’ Rushing Total ‘Over’ Was Such a Popular Prop

Sportsbooks opened the Mahomes rushing prop at 29.5 yards. Bettors pounced immediately. By kickoff, the total skyrocketed to 35.5 yards, a move of 6 yards, which is quite an adjustment. ESPN’s sports gambling writer David Purdum noted that 75 percent of bettors who wagered on this prop took the over.

Professional handicapper Steven Nover caught on to the big number swing and went the other direction. Nover was thrilled to fade the popular public perception. Prior to the game, Nover wrote (in an e-mail to me, which I’m now sharing with his permission):

Surely bettors were remembering Patrick Mahomes’ impressive 27-yard touchdown run against the Titans in the AFC championship. Mahomes rushed for 53 yards against the Titans, and had the same amount of running yards against the Texans in the Chiefs’ (sic) two playoff victories.

So it’s not surprising the Super Bowl prop of Mahomes Over/Under rushing yards has been bet up. It was at 35 1/2 yards at Sportsbook.com Saturday morning. At that number, I believe an under wager makes sense.

Mahomes has been held to under 31 rushing yards in 27 of 32 regular-season games during the past two years. Mahomes has good mobility and excellent improvising skills, but he’s not an elite running quarterback. Even though this is the Super Bowl, the Chiefs would rather not be holding their breath seeing their franchise quarterback take off with the ball against one of the hardest-hitting and better tackling teams in the NFL.

Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson were the only quarterbacks to rush for more than 34 yards against the 49ers this season. Wilson and Murray did this once in their two starts.

The public loves to bet over on props in the Super Bowl. This is an example where the marketplace has pushed the number higher than it should be.

Nover and other contrarian handicappers waited until the highest possible number was available. Then they pounced. They took the “under” at 35.5. A few spots even closed at 36.

What Happened?

Mahomes was resting on 44 rushing yards for the game, well over the posted total — which ranged from 29.5 up to 36. Even a kneel down or two in the closing 57 seconds, resulting in a small subtraction, still meant the over tickets were in great shape.

However, that’s when things turned chaotic. As the Chiefs were moving backward, but nonetheless inching closer to their first Super Bowl win in half a century, each successive play sliced yardage away from Mahomes’ rushing stats. Here’s the breakdown of the final four plays of the game:

1st & 10 at KC 41
(0:57 – 4th) P.Mahomes kneels to KC 36 for -5 yards.

2nd & 15 at KC 36
(0:53 – 4th) P.Mahomes kneels to KC 33 for -3 yards.

3rd & 18 at KC 33
(0:51 – 4th) P.Mahomes kneels to KC 26 for -7 yards.

4th & 25 at KC 26
(0:00 – 4th) (Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass incomplete deep right.

Incredibly, Mahomes lost 15 yards on the final three “rushing attempts.” His rushing yardage total went from 44 yards and ended at 29 yards. What a reversal of fortune! Pay the “under” tickets!

For over bettors, which included most of the public who pounded the yardage total all the way up to 36, this ended up as a horrendous beat.

For many professional bettors and contrarians, including Stephen Nover, it was time to scramble into the trash can and try to dig through the losing tickets. Is there such a thing as plain old dumb luck in handicapping and sports gambling?

Answer — yes.

The lessons best learned here are twofold: First, it’s never over ’til it’s over, and second — a win is a win, no matter how it gets there.

Read more on the Super Bowl Betting recap here.

The post Super Bowl’s Worst Bad Beat: Prop Bet on Mahomes’ Total Rushing Yards Wins, then Loses appeared first on OnlineGambling.com | OG News.

Shanahan might be the best coach in recent Super Bowl memory, at least for the first three quarters. But then, in the final 15 minutes, something odd happens. Dr. Jekyll turns into Mr. Hyde. Shanahan’s fourth-quarter play-calling has been a disaster.

Shanahan’s 49ers were ahead 20-10 in the latest Super Bowl meltdown. The defense played spectacularly for 45 minutes, holding the NFL’s best offense to only a touchdown and a field goal. San Francisco’s offense generated enough points to take a double-digit lead. It certainly looked like the 49ers were well on their way to hoisting the Lombardi Trophy.

Then, the ghost of the Super Bowl past reappeared. Shanahan did another Shanahan. He crumbled under pressure. His team collapsed. Heads down, the 49ers walked off the field in defeat wondering what went wrong in the final 15 minutes.

Shanahan’s choke job is nothing new. It was yet another Super Bowl redux. We’ve seen this before.

Super Bowl LI (February 5, 2017): New England 34, Atlanta 28

Before taking the head coaching job in San Francisco, Shanahan was the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. Three years ago, his team led the mighty New England Patriots 28-3 late in the third quarter. If assistant coaches were eligible for MVP awards, Shanahan certainly would have been one of the finalists.

New England, the NFL’s greatest dynasty, wasn’t to be denied, however. Tom Brady’s offense roared back, tied the game in the final seconds, and then won in overtime. The shocking defeat to a great team wasn’t entirely Shanahan’s fault. There was plenty of blame to go around. However, the offensive coordinator’s bizarre play-calling late in the game, seemingly contrary to overwhelming percentages and against all common sense, became the tipping point in a victory melting into defeat.

Late in the game, the Falcons were ahead 28-20. They possessed the ball in New England territory and were within easy field goal range at the Patriots 23-yard-line. A field goal would have all but cemented a victory, creating a seemingly insurmountable 11-point lead with just three minutes left in the game. Not even Tom Brady could overcome a two-score deficit with zero timeouts remaining.

All Shanahan’s offense had to do was run the ball up the middle three straight downs, which might have resulted in a touchdown, or a first down and a chance to run out the clock. Even if the Falcons were stopped by the Pats defense, the kicker — who made 27 of 28 field goals within the 40-yard range that season — would have come onto the field to secure the victory. An 11-point lead with under three minutes to play was in the bag.

Yet Shanahan did the unthinkable. He called for a pass play, which made no sense at all. An incomplete pass would stop the clock. Worse, a sack would knock the Falcons out of field goal range.

So, what happened?

Inexplicably, after the pass play was called from the sidelines, Quarterback Matt Ryan was sacked for a 12-yard loss. Then, after a holding penalty on Atlanta, Ryan threw another incomplete pass on third down. Clock stopped. Falcons punt. Ball turned over to Tom Brady and the Patriots. And, the rest was history.

Shanahan blew it. Big time.

Fast forward to three years later. Shanahan is older and, presumably, wiser. He’s on the other side of the country, this time calling plays for the San Francisco 49ers. Could history possibly repeat itself in a Super Bowl game?

Super Bowl LIV (February 2, 2020): Kansas City 31, San Francisco 20

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Just ask Kyle Shanahan.

Credit the head coach and the 49ers for building a 10-point lead and getting to the brink of victory in the latest Super Bowl matchup. That said, football isn’t a 45-minute game. It’s a 60-minute game. They don’t give out trophies at the end of the 3rd quarter.

Shanahan’s play calling was already susceptible to criticism, even without the 4th-quarter collapse. The 49ers got to the Super Bowl with a stout defense, combined with a power running attack. In the first playoff game, San Francisco ran the ball 47 times in a crushing defeat of the Vikings. In the second playoff game, San Francisco ran the ball 42 times and dominated the Packers.

But San Francisco ran the ball just 22 times in the Super Bowl against the Chiefs. That’s wacky wrong. Strategically negligent. Absurd.

Why did the 49ers dial back the rushing attack by nearly 50 percent? Sure, they ran fewer offensive plays, which accounts for some decline. Perhaps the 49ers didn’t run the ball effectively, so passing was the better option.

A quick glance at the game stats reveals this to be grossly untrue. The 49ers actually ran the ball effectively during most of the day, even eclipsing the team’s season average. In 22 rushing attempts, the 49ers averaged 5.5 yards-per-carry. Omit QB Garpollo’s two rushes, and San Francisco rushed for nearly 6 yards-per-carry. That’s championship-level football. Those are the stats typical of a Super Bowl winner. Let’s add one more stat that’s relevant: Kansas City’s defense ranked 26th in the NFL against the run this season. This all adds up to a perfect recipe for running, running, and more running by the 49ers.

Shanahan’s decision to pretty much abandon the run made no sense whatsoever. Then, his puzzling offensive strategy became truly jaw-dropping:

“We tried to run the ball,” Shanahan told reporters after the game. “We play action, convert third downs. I think the plays got a little lopsided a little bit where we didn’t have 15-play drives. I didn’t feel like we punted until the fourth quarter.”

Indeed, San Francisco’s first punt came mid-fourth quarter with the Niners leading 20-10. After Kansas City got the ball back and cut the lead to 20-17, the 49ers’ most crucial drive began on their own 20-yard line with six minutes left in the game.

• 1st down and 10: RB Mostert runs the ball up the middle and picks up five yards,
• 2nd down and 5: Pass play. Incomplete pass.
• 3rd down and 5: Pass Play. Incomplete pass.
• 4th down and 5: Punt.

That was the 49ers’ first three-and-out of the game. Kansas City got the ball again, stormed down the field, and took the lead. The same scenario repeated a few minutes later, and the 49ers went from being up by three points to being down by 11. It was a stunning turn of events precipitated by terrible play-calling on Shanahan’s part.

Why would Shanahan call a pass play on second down and 5? This makes no sense at all. The 49ers had been picking up 5.5 yards-per-rushing-attempt. They had two cracks at getting five yards. Two or three first downs meant the game was probably over. It was the 2017 Super Bowl mishap all over again.

Only this time, instead of Tom Brady being the hero, Pat Mahomes was given the chance to shine in the NFL’s marquee game. The only commonality is that Shanahan (and his awful play-calling) set the stage for defeat being snatched from the jaws of victory.

Second Guessing and Monday Morning Quarterbacking

On Monday morning, it’s easy to criticize coaches and players for Sunday’s mistakes. Everyone is an expert after the game is over.

Nonetheless, criticism of Shanahan is deserved, and then some. Outscored in the fourth quarter and overtime of two Super Bowls by the combined score of 46-0, Shanahan’s coaching should be scrutinized. His play-calling has been disastrous.

Football is a game of percentages. It’s a game of weighing risks and a game of accentuating team advantages. It’s also a game of closing the deal.

Shanahan has failed two tests, and done so badly. He and his teams should have two Super Bowl rings by now. Instead, he has zero. Credit Shanahan for getting to the big game. Also, blame him for two imbecilic defeats.

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